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AAAlcoa Corporation
$44.71$11.6B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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AA logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA
NYSE · Aluminum
$44.71
At close - Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$11.8B
P/E10.1x
52W High$84.38
Volume4.32M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Alcoa's Deleveraging and Margin Expansion Signal Cyclical Upswing

Alcoa is emerging from a cyclical trough with a sharp operational turnaround, evidenced by a 31.4% YoY revenue surge to $4.0B and gross margin expansion to 25.2% in 2026Q2. The company has aggressively deleveraged, cutting total debt from $5.2B in 2025Q3 to $2...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityStrong
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

AA price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

8/12 Beats

EPS beat 8 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-74% Peers

P/E is 74% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 23 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 77% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 16
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue rebounded 31.4% YoY to $4.0B in 2026Q2, with gross margin expanding to 25.2% and operating income jumping 68.5% QoQ to $718M, though net income of $407M trails operating income due to non-operating charges.

Analyst Consensus+42.0% target
Buy(42 analysts)
23 Buy18 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Low-carbon product leadership

Alcoa's Sustana brand offers the industry’s most extensive portfolio of low-carbon products, positioning it well for sustainability-driven demand.

Strong price scenario modeling

Bullish alumina and aluminum price scenarios for 2026, based on historical cycles and Alcoa's sensitivities, suggest potential revenue growth.

Green premium revenue growth

Rapid commercialization of new tech and strong green premiums could drive revenue CAGR towards +6%, supporting a bullish outlook.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
AA-20.39%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+13.20%
1-Year Return
AA+38.25%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.98%
3-Year Return
AA+61.94%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+76.84%
5-Year Return
AA-2.59%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+68.95%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
9.9x
Forward P/EExpansion
6.8x
EV/EBITDA60th %ile
9.2x
FCF YieldCash Flow
4.9%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
9.9x
26.4x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
5.4x
60th· Fair
Price/FCF
20.5x
24.7x
0th· Low
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$35.03-21.7%
Base (Fair)$61.48+38.2%
Bull$82.98+85.6%
$35.03 Bear$61.48 Base$82.98 Bull
Current Market Price: $44.71
Trades at a 27.3% discount to Base DCF ($61.48)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$12.83B+5.3% YoY
Net income
$1.16B+1828.3% YoY
Free cash flow
$567M+1250.0% YoY
Operating margin
5.9%-3.7 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)8.1%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)20.4%
Piotroski Score6 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
Revenue Beat Rate6/12 (50%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 16, 2026
$2.12-5.8%
vs $2.25
$4.0B-0.6%
vs $4.0B
Q2 2026
Apr 16, 2026
$1.40-8.5%
vs $1.53
$3.2B-2.6%
vs $3.3B
Q1 2026
Jan 22, 2026
$1.26+36.1%
vs $0.93
$3.4B+5.3%
vs $3.3B
Q4 2025
Oct 22, 2025
-$0.02+85.8%
vs -$0.14
$3.0B-3.1%
vs $3.1B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Seeking Alpha·2d ago
South32: Selling Complexity To Fund A More Valuable Mining Business

South32 is poised to unlock financial flexibility via its proposed aluminum asset sale, enabling reinvestment in longer-life base metal projects. SOUHY's robust earnings growth, strong copper/silver prices, and disciplined project execution underpin a shift toward lower funding risk and higher long-term value creation. The Alcoa deal, if approved, delivers $3.1B cash, Alcoa shares, and contingent upside, while streamlining operations and reducing management complexity.

Defense World·4d ago
Nykredit A S Acquires Shares of 1,031,634 Alcoa $AA

Nykredit A S bought a new stake in shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) in the undefined quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm bought 1,031,634 shares of the industrial products company's stock, valued at approximately $53,789,000. Nykredit A S owned approximately 0.39% of Alcoa as

Business Wire·Sep 15, 2026
Alcoa Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call

PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA; ASX: AAI) plans to announce its third quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 15, 2026, after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Alcoa will host a conference call to discuss the third quarter 2026 financial results on October 15, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. EDT (October 16, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. AEDT). The call will be webcast live via Alcoa's website, www.alcoa.com. The third quarter 2026 earnings press release with fi.

MarketBeat·Sep 12, 2026
Alcoa Sees Aluminum Deficit, Strong Demand and Tariff Upside at Jefferies Conference

Alcoa NYSE: AA CFO Molly Beerman said the aluminum producer is carrying momentum from the second quarter into the third quarter, supported by strong production, pricing realization and demand from customers in North America and Europe.

Filtered for Alcoa CorporationMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark AA against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Alcoa Corporation (AA)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
AA logoAAAlcoa CorporationCurrent
$44.71$11.8B10.075.31%9.02%20.39%0.88%
CENX logoCENXCentury Aluminum Company
$39.40$3.9B93.8113.85%22.63%54.16%—
KALU logoKALUKaiser Aluminum Corporation
$153.85$2.52B22.7311.54%5.49%26.29%—
CSTM logoCSTMConstellium SE
$25.33$3.43B13.1919.28%5.69%51.66%—
NEM logoNEMNewmont Corporation
$127.26$134.09B19.8519.08%38.06%24.89%—
FCX logoFCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
$74.35$106.88B48.911.12%11.38%9.43%—

Compare AA vs Peers

Alcoa Corporation (AA) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs CENX

Most directly comparable listed peer for AA.

Scale Benchmark

vs CAT

Larger-name benchmark to compare AA against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs CENX, KALU, CSTM, NEM

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

AA SEC Filings & Documents

Alcoa Corporation (AA) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 16, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 2, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 1, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Feb 26, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 20, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Apr 30, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Oct 28, 2025·SEC

FY 2025

Jul 31, 2025·SEC

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AA Frequently Asked Questions

Alcoa Corporation (AA) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Alcoa Corporation's revenue?

Alcoa Corporation (AA) reported $13.60B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 43% decrease from $23.95B in 2014.

How fast is Alcoa Corporation growing?

Alcoa Corporation (AA) grew revenue by 5.3% over the past year. This is steady growth.

Is AA profitable?

Yes, Alcoa Corporation (AA) is profitable, generating $1.28B in net income for fiscal year 2025 (9.0% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does AA pay dividends?

Yes, Alcoa Corporation (AA) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.88%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is AA's return on equity?

Alcoa Corporation (AA) has a return on equity (ROE) of 20.4%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

What is Alcoa Corporation's free cash flow?

Alcoa Corporation (AA) generated $352.0M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in AA back in 2014?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 12+ years of data

See returns →