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AAONAAON, Inc.
$57.19$4.7B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
AAON logo

AAON, Inc.

AAON
NASDAQ · Building Products & HVAC
$57.19
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$4.68B
P/E30.1x
52W High$150.46
Volume1.61M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Revenue Surge Masks Margin Compression and Cash Strain

AAON is experiencing explosive revenue growth driven by data center demand, with Q2 2026 revenue up 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0M. However, this growth is accompanied by significant gross margin compression (down to 24.3% from 36.1% in Q2 2024) and negative free cash flow (-$31.2M in Q2 2026), raising concerns about…

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityStable
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

AAON price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

8/12 Beats

EPS beat 8 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

In Line

P/E is in line with peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 18 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 82% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystConfirmed earnings · Nov 9
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue surged 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0M in Q2 2026, but gross margin compressed to 24.3% from 36.1% a year earlier, indicating significant profitability pressure despite volume growth.

Analyst Consensus+114.5% target
Buy(5 analysts)
5 Buy0 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strategic M&A potential

The board discussed strategic M&A in 2025, indicating potential growth through acquisitions, with a notable premium floor of $105.

Bullish research coverage

Kairos Research published a bullish thesis on AAON, highlighting its investment potential and current market valuation metrics.

Premium valuation metrics

AAON's trailing P/E ratio of 38.88 reflects strong market confidence and growth expectations.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/8/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
AAON-27.40%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
AAON-42.43%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
AAON+1.04%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+75.73%
5-Year Return
AAON+18.19%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+64.03%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
30.1x
Forward P/EExpansion
24.1x
EV/EBITDA0th %ile
17.1x
FCF YieldCash Flow
N/A

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
30.1x
58.3x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
17.1x
29.2x
0th· Low
Price/FCF
N/A
112.7x
N/A
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$10.79-81.1%
Base (Fair)$26.18-54.2%
Bull$29.70-48.1%
$10.79 Bear$26.18 Base$29.70 Bull
Current Market Price: $57.19
Trades at a 118.4% premium to Base DCF ($26.18)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$1.44B+20.1% YoY
Net income FY25
$108M-36.2% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
-$191M-6019.7% YoY
Operating margin FY25
10.6%-6.9 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)9.9%
Avg ROIC 5Y16.3%
ROE (TTM)17.2%
Piotroski Score2 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
Revenue Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 10, 2026
$0.69+34.5%
vs $0.51
$627M+23.2%
vs $509M
Q2 2026
May 7, 2026
$0.48+64.6%
vs $0.29
$497M+30.4%
vs $381M
Q2 2026
Mar 2, 2026
$0.39-13.3%
vs $0.45
$424M+13.9%
vs $372M
Q4 2025
Nov 6, 2025
$0.37+12.1%
vs $0.33
$384M+2.7%
vs $374M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
PRNewsWire·1d ago
The Aaon Group to Present at the 2026 Baird Global Industrial Conference

TULSA, Okla., Nov. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- AAON, INC.

PRNewsWire·Oct 30, 2026
The Aaon Group Announces Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call and Webcast

TULSA, Okla., Oct. 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) ("The Aaon Group", or the "Company"), a leader in high-performance HVAC and thermal management solutions, announces that it has scheduled its quarterly conference call and webcast for Monday, November 9, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.

Zacks Investment Research·Oct 29, 2026
Aaon (AAON) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Q3 Release

Aaon (AAON) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Seeking Alpha·Oct 27, 2026
Conestoga Small Cap Composite Q3 2026 Portfolio Activity

The Conestoga Small Cap Composite returned -11.22% net of fees in 3Q26, trailing the -9.39% return for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. Small Cap Composite top 5 leaders include Repligen, Merit Medical, Stevanato Group, Descartes Systems and Digi International. Small Cap Composite bottom 5 laggards include Mercury Systems, AAON, RBC Bearings, SPX Technologies and UL Solutions.

Filtered for AAON, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark AAON against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
AAON logoAAONAAON, Inc.Current
$57.19$4.68B30.0620.11%8.24%17.21%0.69%
LII logoLIILennox International Inc.
$341.97$11.82B15.73-2.73%13.76%60.1%1.44%
CARR logoCARRCarrier Global Corporation
$52.38$43.18B-23.90-3.29%-7.9%-13.9%1.74%
TT logoTTTrane Technologies plc
$401.76$88.81B28.247.48%13.56%36.01%0.93%
JCI logoJCIJohnson Controls International plc
$135.03$81.79B28.928.77%11.12%21.16%1.18%
MOD logoMODModine Manufacturing Company
$96.61$5.13B40.0323.13%3.59%10.88%—

Compare AAON vs Peers

AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs LII

Most directly comparable listed peer for AAON.

Scale Benchmark

vs EMR

Larger-name benchmark to compare AAON against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs LII, CARR, TT, JCI

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

AAON SEC Filings & Documents

AAON, Inc. (AAON) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 13, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Aug 10, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 30, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Mar 2, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 27, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 10, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 7, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 6, 2025·SEC

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AAON Frequently Asked Questions

AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is AAON, Inc.'s revenue?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) reported $1.93B in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Revenue was $1.44B in fiscal year 2025. That is 2195% more than the $62.8M of fiscal year 1996.

How fast is AAON, Inc. growing?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) grew revenue by 53.5% over the trailing twelve months, compared with the twelve months before.

Is AAON profitable?

Yes. AAON, Inc. (AAON) earned $159.3M in net income over the trailing twelve months (a 8.2% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does AAON pay dividends?

Yes. AAON, Inc. (AAON) pays a dividend that yields 0.69% at the current price, a small yield.

What is AAON's return on equity?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) had a return on equity (ROE) of 17.2% over the trailing twelve months. That is above the market's typical 10-15%.

What is AAON, Inc.'s free cash flow?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) had negative free cash flow of $118.8M over the trailing twelve months.

What if you invested $1,000 in AAON back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →