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AAONAAON, Inc.
$79.27$6.5B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
AAON logo

AAON, Inc.

AAON
NASDAQ · Construction
$79.27
At close - Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$6.49B
P/E61.4x
52W High$150.46
Volume1.01M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Revenue Surge Masks Margin Compression and Cash Strain

AAON is experiencing explosive revenue growth driven by data center demand, with Q2 2026 revenue up 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0M. However, this growth is accompanied by significant gross margin compression (down to 24.3% from 36.1% in Q2 2024) and negative...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityStable
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

AAON price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

8/12 Beats

EPS beat 8 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+76% Peers

P/E is 76% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 17 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 83% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystConfirmed earnings · Nov 5
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue surged 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0M in Q2 2026, but gross margin compressed to 24.3% from 36.1% a year earlier, indicating significant profitability pressure despite volume growth.

Analyst Consensus+54.7% target
Buy(5 analysts)
5 Buy0 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strategic M&A potential

The board discussed strategic M&A in 2025, indicating potential growth through acquisitions, with a notable premium floor of $105.

Bullish research coverage

Kairos Research published a bullish thesis on AAON, highlighting its investment potential and current market valuation metrics.

Premium valuation metrics

AAON's trailing P/E ratio of 38.88 reflects strong market confidence and growth expectations.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
AAON+0.48%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+13.20%
1-Year Return
AAON-14.28%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.98%
3-Year Return
AAON+41.12%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+84.94%
5-Year Return
AAON+84.48%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+81.34%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
61.4x
Forward P/EExpansion
33.7x
EV/EBITDA60th %ile
29.9x
FCF YieldCash Flow
N/A

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
61.4x
58.3x
80th· High
EV/EBITDA
29.9x
29.2x
60th· Fair
Price/FCF
N/A
112.7x
N/A
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$8.38-89.4%
Base (Fair)$21.20-72.4%
Bull$24.38-69.2%
$8.38 Bear$21.20 Base$24.38 Bull
Current Market Price: $79.27
Trades at a 273.9% premium to Base DCF ($21.20)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$1.44B+20.1% YoY
Net income
$108M-36.2% YoY
Free cash flow
-$191M-6019.7% YoY
Operating margin
10.6%-6.9 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)9.9%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)12.5%
Piotroski Score2 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
Revenue Beat Rate8/12 (67%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 10, 2026
$0.69+34.5%
vs $0.51
$627M+23.2%
vs $509M
Q2 2026
May 7, 2026
$0.48+64.6%
vs $0.29
$497M+30.4%
vs $381M
Q2 2026
Mar 2, 2026
$0.39-13.3%
vs $0.45
$424M+13.9%
vs $372M
Q4 2025
Nov 6, 2025
$0.37+12.1%
vs $0.33
$384M+2.7%
vs $374M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Seeking Alpha·Sep 16, 2026
Baron Real Estate Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activity

Baron Real Estate Fund delivered strong results in the second quarter. The Fund increased 11.89% (Institutional Shares). Shares of Hyatt Hotels Corporation appreciated materially following strong first quarter results and an Investor Day in May that outlined strong long-term growth targets. Shares of AAON, Inc. rose during the quarter following an exceptionally strong earnings report which saw the company see drastically faster growth in its data center business, BasX, than expected.

Seeking Alpha·Sep 14, 2026
AAON, Inc.'s Growth Makes 23x 2027 Earnings Look Reasonable

AAON shares have dropped ~47% from highs, but underlying demand and backlog remain robust, particularly in its BASX data-center segment. Gross margin pressures stem from rapid capacity expansion and startup costs, with management expecting visible recovery by 2027 as Memphis utilization improves. Despite negative free cash flow and lowered 2026 margin guidance, AAON raises its 2026 sales-growth outlook to 55%-60% and maintains a $2B backlog.

Defense World·Aug 27, 2026
American Capital Management Inc. Takes $47.59 Million Position in AAON, Inc. $AAON

American Capital Management Inc. bought a new position in shares of AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON) during the undefined quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the SEC. The institutional investor bought 375,178 shares of the construction company's stock, valued at approximately $47,595,000. AAON makes up approximately 2.1% of American Capital

PRNewsWire·Aug 21, 2026
AAON Introduces The Aaon Group as Its New Enterprise Identity

The new identity brings greater clarity to AAON's evolution into a multi-brand, multi-market enterprise. TULSA, Okla.

Filtered for AAON, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark AAON against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
AAON logoAAONAAON, Inc.Current
$79.27$6.49B61.4520.11%7.46%12.51%0.49%
LII logoLIILennox International Inc.
$371.68$12.85B16.73-2.73%14.61%65.3%—
CARR logoCARRCarrier Global Corporation
$55.26$45.55B32.51-3.29%5.52%8.68%—
TT logoTTTrane Technologies plc
$437.82$96.78B33.737.48%13.28%34.49%—
JCI logoJCIJohnson Controls International plc
$146.44$88.7B55.682.81%14.32%26.89%—
MOD logoMODModine Manufacturing Company
$195.96$10.41B87.4823.13%4.28%12.56%—

Compare AAON vs Peers

AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs LII

Most directly comparable listed peer for AAON.

Scale Benchmark

vs VRT

Larger-name benchmark to compare AAON against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs LII, CARR, TT, JCI

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

AAON SEC Filings & Documents

AAON, Inc. (AAON) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 13, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Aug 10, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 30, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Mar 2, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 27, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 10, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 7, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 6, 2025·SEC

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AAON Frequently Asked Questions

AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is AAON, Inc.'s revenue?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) reported $1.93B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 2975% increase from $62.8M in 1996.

How fast is AAON, Inc. growing?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) grew revenue by 20.1% over the past year. This is strong growth.

Is AAON profitable?

Yes, AAON, Inc. (AAON) is profitable, generating $159.3M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (7.5% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does AAON pay dividends?

Yes, AAON, Inc. (AAON) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.49%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is AAON's return on equity?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) has a return on equity (ROE) of 12.5%. This is reasonable for most industries.

What is AAON, Inc.'s free cash flow?

AAON, Inc. (AAON) had negative free cash flow of $118.8M in fiscal year 2025, likely due to heavy capital investments.

What if you invested $1,000 in AAON back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →