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BHPBHP Group Limited
$84.95$215.8B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗AnalysisVisualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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BHP logo

BHP Group Limited

BHP
NYSE · Industrial Materials
$84.95
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$215.8B
P/E23.9x
52W High$98.71
Volume4.11M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q4

Commodity Cycles Drive BHP's Earnings and Margin Volatility

BHP's revenue growth is highly cyclical, with a 19.5% decline in 2023Q4, reflecting its exposure to commodity price swings. The company demonstrates strong cash generation, evidenced by an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.96 in Q4 2026, and maintai...

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityStrong
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsMixed
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

BHP price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

3/12 Beats

EPS beat 3 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-9% Peers

P/E is 9% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 78 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 78)

04

Mixed Trend

Mixed

Price < 50DMA but > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Nov 17
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

BHP's revenue growth is erratic, swinging from 27.5% in 2022Q2 to -19.5% in 2023Q4, while gross margins compress from over 120% to 35.8%, indicating significant cyclical margin pressure.

Analyst Consensus+11.8% target
Hold(31 analysts)
7 Buy20 Hold4 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Analyst Upgrades and Confidence

BHP has received multiple upgrades from analysts, including a 'strong-buy' rating from Goldman Sachs, indicating strong confidence in its future performance.

Potential for Appreciation

The current stock price is viewed as reflecting an achievable consensus price target, suggesting potential for appreciation.

Solid Financial Position

BHP maintains a solid financial position with a current ratio of 1.65, indicating sufficient assets to cover short-term liabilities.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Majority Hold Ratings

Despite some upgrades, a majority of analysts rate BHP as a 'hold', suggesting limited near-term outperformance.

Commodity Price Volatility

Fluctuations in commodity prices, such as iron ore and copper, can lead to unpredictable revenue streams and impact profitability.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks

BHP faces geopolitical risks and regulatory changes in operating countries, which could adversely affect its performance.

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
BHP+43.12%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
BHP+65.87%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
BHP+66.63%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+74.32%
5-Year Return
BHP+110.56%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+68.20%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
23.9x
Forward P/EExpansion
17.4x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
9.4x
FCF YieldCash Flow
4.3%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
23.9x
13.5x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
9.4x
5.7x
100th· High
Price/FCF
23.3x
12.2x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$62.68-26.2%
Base (Fair)$96.98+12.4%
Bull$129.63+52.6%
$62.68 Bear$96.98 Base$129.63 Bull
Current Market Price: $84.95
Trades at a 12.4% discount to Base DCF ($96.98)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$51.26B-7.9% YoY
Net income
$9.02B+14.2% YoY
Free cash flow
$9.28B-21.7% YoY
Operating margin
38%+6.5 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)24%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)17.8%
Piotroski Score5 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate3/12 (25%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 17, 2026
$2.76+3.4%
vs $2.67
$31.2B+3.1%
vs $30.2B
Q1 2026
Feb 16, 2026
$2.24-6.7%
vs $2.40
$27.9B+2.2%
vs $27.3B
Q3 2025
Aug 18, 2025
$2.12+1.4%
vs $2.09
$26.0B-0.3%
vs $26.0B
Q1 2025
Feb 17, 2025
$1.74-12.1%
vs $1.98
$25.2B+0.5%
vs $25.0B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
The Motley Fool·1d ago
3 Copper Stocks Compared: Which Is the Best Buy for the AI Boom?

Copper demand is being pulled higher by AI infrastructure, grids, electrification, and manufacturing. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX +3.33%), Southern Copper (SCCO +4.57%), and BHP (BHP +2.47%) offer three very different ways to participate.

Reuters·Sep 15, 2026
Combined BHP Ports Unions to seek arbitration over wage deal dispute

Combined BHP Ports Unions will take top global miner BHP to arbitration ​after the two parties failed to agree on terms for a new wage ‌deal for its Port Hedland iron ore operations in Western Australia, the union said on Tuesday.

Zacks Investment Research·Sep 9, 2026
NHYDY or BHP: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Investors with an interest in Mining - Miscellaneous stocks have likely encountered both Norsk Hydro ASA (NHYDY) and BHP (BHP). But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks?

Reuters·Sep 8, 2026
BHP, union talks for Port Hedland iron ore workers to stretch on into next week

Talks between BHP and unions representing workers at the mining giant's Port Hedland iron ore operations in ​Western Australia ended without a deal, with further negotiations ‌scheduled for next week, the parties said on Tuesday.

Filtered for BHP Group LimitedMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark BHP against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for BHP Group Limited (BHP)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
BHP logoBHPBHP Group LimitedCurrent
$84.95$215.8B23.86-7.9%17.59%17.8%2.96%
RIO logoRIORio Tinto Group
$95.25$154.78B15.617.67%19.31%34.54%—
VALE logoVALEVale S.A.
$13.82$58.94B23.830.46%4.92%5.3%—
FCX logoFCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
$72.59$104.35B47.751.12%11.38%9.43%—
SCCO logoSCCOSouthern Copper Corporation
$201.94$168.48B38.5417.38%35.9%49.08%—
CLF logoCLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.
$12.87$7.34B-4.29-3%-4.56%-14.68%—

Compare BHP vs Peers

BHP Group Limited (BHP) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs RIO

Most directly comparable listed peer for BHP.

Scale Benchmark

vs CAT

Larger-name benchmark to compare BHP against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs RIO, VALE, FCX, SCCO

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BHP Frequently Asked Questions

BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is BHP Group Limited's revenue?

BHP Group Limited (BHP) reported $110.17B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 621% increase from $15.27B in 1996.

How fast is BHP Group Limited growing?

BHP Group Limited (BHP) saw revenue decline by 7.9% over the past year.

Is BHP profitable?

Yes, BHP Group Limited (BHP) is profitable, generating $18.88B in net income for fiscal year 2025 (17.6% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does BHP pay dividends?

Yes, BHP Group Limited (BHP) pays a dividend with a yield of 2.96%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is BHP's return on equity?

BHP Group Limited (BHP) has a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8%. This is reasonable for most industries.

What is BHP Group Limited's free cash flow?

BHP Group Limited (BHP) generated $21.27B in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in BHP back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →