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CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
$80.46$5.6B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
CHDN logo

Churchill Downs Incorporated

CHDN
NASDAQ · Casinos & Gaming
$80.46
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$5.61B
P/E15.1x
52W High$118.16
Volume1.27M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Derby-Driven Cash Flows Mask Stretched Balance Sheet

Churchill Downs' investment case hinges on the powerful Kentucky Derby quarter, which drove Q2 2026 revenue to $980M with a 36.4% operating margin and $276M in free cash flow. However, this seasonal concentration leaves off-peak quarters with thin margins (net...

GrowthStable
ProfitabilityStrong
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

CHDN price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

9/12 Beats

EPS beat 9 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-42% Peers

P/E is 42% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 36 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 64% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 29
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth is stable at 3-9% year-over-year, but Q2 2026 stands out with a 36.4% operating margin and $3.44 EPS, while off-peak quarters show compressed margins (e.g., 5.5% net margin in Q3 2025).

Analyst Consensus+64.1% target
Buy(23 analysts)
23 Buy0 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Kentucky Derby strength

The Kentucky Derby is a key asset for Churchill Downs, driving significant revenue and brand value.

Growth catalysts

Churchill Downs has multiple growth catalysts, including new projects like Marshall Yards and Rockingham Grand Casino.

Strong cash flows

The company generates robust cash flows, similar to peers like MGM, supporting its financial stability.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
CHDN-28.13%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
CHDN-16.41%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
CHDN-27.36%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+82.69%
5-Year Return
CHDN-30.78%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+72.15%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
15.1x
Forward P/EExpansion
11.6x
EV/EBITDA0th %ile
10.8x
FCF YieldCash Flow
8.8%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
15.1x
23.5x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
10.8x
20.2x
0th· Low
Price/FCF
11.3x
44.1x
0th· Low
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$61.36-23.7%
Base (Fair)$162.76+98.7%
Bull$287.43+257.2%
$61.36 Bear$162.76 Base$287.43 Bull
Current Market Price: $80.46
Trades at a 50.6% discount to Base DCF ($162.76)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$2.93B+7.0% YoY
Net income
$380M-11.0% YoY
Free cash flow
$495M+119.3% YoY
Operating margin
25.2%-0.8 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)9.4%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)35.2%
Piotroski Score6 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate9/12 (75%)
Revenue Beat Rate9/12 (75%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 29, 2026
$3.45+0.0%
vs $3.45
$980M+0.3%
vs $977M
Q2 2026
Apr 22, 2026
$1.21+14.2%
vs $1.06
$663M+0.3%
vs $661M
Q1 2026
Feb 25, 2026
$0.97+14.1%
vs $0.85
$666M+0.9%
vs $660M
Q4 2025
Oct 22, 2025
$1.09+12.4%
vs $0.97
$683M+4.1%
vs $656M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
GlobeNewsWire·6d ago
Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces Pricing of $500 Million Senior Secured Term Loan B Due 2033

LOUISVILLE, Ky., Sept. 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Churchill Downs Incorporated (Nasdaq: CHDN, “CDI,” “the Company”) announced today that it successfully priced its previously announced $500 million in aggregate principal amount of senior secured Term Loan B due 2033 (“2033 TLB”). The 2033 TLB priced at SOFR plus 175 basis points and issued at 99.875% of the principal amount.

Defense World·Sep 16, 2026
Contrasting Bally’s (NYSE:BALY) & Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN)

Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN - Get Free Report) and Bally's (NYSE: BALY - Get Free Report) are both consumer discretionary companies, but which is the better investment? We will contrast the two companies based on the strength of their institutional ownership, valuation, earnings, analyst recommendations, profitability, risk and dividends. Risk and Volatility Churchill Downs has a beta

GuruFocus·Sep 15, 2026
Is Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) a Bargain After 3.6% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued

On September 15, 2026, Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) shares fell by 3.6%, closing at $80.60. The stock is currently trading within a 52-week range of $79.40 to $11

Defense World·Sep 15, 2026
California State Teachers Retirement System Raises Holdings in Churchill Downs, Incorporated $CHDN

California State Teachers Retirement System raised its position in shares of Churchill Downs, Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) by 8,697.6% during the undefined quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 6,477,297 shares of the company's stock after acquiring an additional 6,403,671 shares during

Filtered for Churchill Downs IncorporatedMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark CHDN against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
CHDN logoCHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedCurrent
$80.46$5.61B15.127.01%12.98%35.17%0.54%
PENN logoPENNPENN Entertainment, Inc.
$15.56$2.08B-2.675.82%-12.66%-48.65%—
BYD logoBYDBoyd Gaming Corporation
$71.74$5.21B3.184.12%44.34%70.52%—
RRR logoRRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.
$50.90$2.98B16.313.74%8.43%56.19%—
DKNG logoDKNGDraftKings Inc.
$21.25$10.54B-2623.4626.99%-2.68%-26.3%—
CZR logoCZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.
$29.61$6.03B-12.242.14%-3.81%-11.99%—

Compare CHDN vs Peers

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs PENN

Most directly comparable listed peer for CHDN.

Scale Benchmark

vs MAR

Larger-name benchmark to compare CHDN against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs PENN, BYD, RRR, DKNG

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

CHDN SEC Filings & Documents

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Apr 22, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

3
FY 2026

Feb 25, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 20, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Feb 21, 2024·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Apr 22, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Oct 22, 2025·SEC

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CHDN Frequently Asked Questions

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's revenue?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported $2.99B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 2673% increase from $107.9M in 1996.

How fast is Churchill Downs Incorporated growing?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) grew revenue by 7.0% over the past year. This is steady growth.

Is CHDN profitable?

Yes, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is profitable, generating $409.7M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (13.0% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does CHDN pay dividends?

Yes, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.54%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is CHDN's return on equity?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) has a return on equity (ROE) of 35.2%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's free cash flow?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) generated $685.6M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in CHDN back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →