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CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
$97.94$6.8B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
CHDN logo

Churchill Downs Incorporated

CHDN
NASDAQ · Casinos & Resorts
$97.94
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$6.83B
P/E15.2x
52W High$118.35
Volume942.33K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q3

Derby-Driven Earnings Volatility Masks Leveraged Balance Sheet Risk

Churchill Downs' earnings and cash flow are highly seasonal, with 2026Q2 revenue of $980.0M and a 36.4% operating margin contrasting sharply with 2026Q3 revenue of $696.0M and a 20.5% margin, suggesting that reported results depend heavily on a few event-heavy quarters.

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsNeutral
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

CHDN price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

9/12 Beats

EPS beat 9 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-21% Peers

P/E is 21% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 77 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 77)

04

Trend Check

N/A

Trend data unavailable

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Jan 28
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue and margins swing widely by quarter, with gross margin ranging from 28.8% in 2024Q4 to 51.9% in 2026Q2 and diluted EPS spanning $0.53 to $3.42, indicating earnings are concentrated in a few seasonal peaks.

Analyst Consensus+34.5% target
Buy(23 analysts)
23 Buy0 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Kentucky Derby strength

The Kentucky Derby is a key asset for Churchill Downs, driving significant revenue and brand value.

Growth catalysts

Churchill Downs has multiple growth catalysts, including new projects like Marshall Yards and Rockingham Grand Casino.

Strong cash flows

The company generates robust cash flows, similar to peers like MGM, supporting its financial stability.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/8/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
CHDN-12.51%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
CHDN+1.87%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
CHDN-16.55%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+68.44%
5-Year Return
CHDN-16.12%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+56.47%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y Low
15.2x
Forward P/EExpansion
14.2x
EV/EBITDA0th %ile
11.6x
FCF YieldCash Flow
7.8%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
15.2x
23.5x
0th· Low
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
20.2x
0th· Low
Price/FCF
12.9x
44.1x
0th· Low
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$57.65-41.1%
Base (Fair)$153.39+56.6%
Bull$291.90+198.0%
$57.65 Bear$153.39 Base$291.90 Bull
Current Market Price: $97.94
Trades at a 36.1% discount to Base DCF ($153.39)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$2.93B+7.0% YoY
Net income FY25
$380M-11.0% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
$310M+37.2% YoY
Operating margin FY25
25.2%-0.8 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)9.4%
Avg ROIC 5Y8.9%
ROE (TTM)36.2%
Piotroski Score6 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate9/12 (75%)
Revenue Beat Rate10/12 (83%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q4 2026Latest
Oct 28, 2026
$1.23+8.8%
vs $1.13
$696M+0.1%
vs $695M
Q3 2026
Jul 29, 2026
$3.45+0.0%
vs $3.45
$980M+0.3%
vs $977M
Q2 2026
Apr 22, 2026
$1.21+14.2%
vs $1.06
$663M+0.3%
vs $661M
Q1 2026
Feb 25, 2026
$0.97+14.1%
vs $0.85
$666M+0.9%
vs $660M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
Zacks Investment Research·Oct 21, 2026
Churchill Downs (CHDN) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Churchill Downs (CHDN) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Benzinga·Oct 9, 2026
Churchill Downs Stock Near 6-Year Low: Vitaminwater Founder Could be The Hero for Kentucky Derby Parent

Shares of Kentucky Derby parent company Churchill Downs Inc (NASDAQ:CHDN) have fallen to lows last seen in October 2020. The company could have a hero coming to the rescue with entrepreneur and horse owner Mike Repole ready to make moves.

Defense World·Oct 4, 2026
Hilton Worldwide (NYSE:HLT) vs. Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) Head to Head Survey

Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN - Get Free Report) and Hilton Worldwide (NYSE: HLT - Get Free Report) are both consumer discretionary companies, but which is the superior stock? We will compare the two businesses based on the strength of their institutional ownership, analyst recommendations, dividends, profitability, valuation, risk and earnings. Insider and Institutional Ownership 82.6% of Churchill

Defense World·Sep 29, 2026
Churchill Downs extends debt maturities with $500 million term loan

What happened Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) said it closed an amended and extended credit facility and a new Term Loan B on September 28, 2026. The amendment pushes the maturity of its revolving credit facility and term loan A facility from 2029 to 2031. The company also closed a previously announced $500 million Term

Filtered for Churchill Downs IncorporatedMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark CHDN against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
CHDN logoCHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedCurrent
$97.94$6.83B15.177.01%15.04%36.19%0.44%
PENN logoPENNPENN Entertainment, Inc.
$17.43$2.33B-256.705.82%-0.13%-0.5%—
BYD logoBYDBoyd Gaming Corporation
$76.57$5.56B11.144.12%12.29%19.91%0.93%
RRR logoRRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.
$48.22$2.82B23.983.74%5.79%40.44%2.44%
DKNG logoDKNGDraftKings Inc.
$18.51$9.18B-24.2826.99%-5.91%-76.32%—
CZR logoCZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.
$29.23$5.95B-11.192.14%-4.55%-14.93%—

Compare CHDN vs Peers

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs PENN

Most directly comparable listed peer for CHDN.

Scale Benchmark

vs MAR

Larger-name benchmark to compare CHDN against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs PENN, BYD, RRR, DKNG

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

CHDN SEC Filings & Documents

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Oct 28, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Oct 28, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Oct 28, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

3
FY 2026

Feb 25, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 20, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Feb 21, 2024·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Oct 28, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Jul 29, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Apr 22, 2026·SEC

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CHDN Frequently Asked Questions

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's revenue?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported $3.00B in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Revenue was $2.93B in fiscal year 2025. That is 2612% more than the $107.9M of fiscal year 1996.

How fast is Churchill Downs Incorporated growing?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) grew revenue by 4.2% over the trailing twelve months, compared with the twelve months before.

Is CHDN profitable?

Yes. Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) earned $451.8M in net income over the trailing twelve months (a 15.0% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does CHDN pay dividends?

Yes. Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) pays a dividend that yields 0.44% at the current price, a small yield.

What is CHDN's return on equity?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) had a return on equity (ROE) of 36.2% over the trailing twelve months. That is well above the market's typical 10-15%.

What is Churchill Downs Incorporated's free cash flow?

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) generated $529.7M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months.

What if you invested $1,000 in CHDN back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →