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GFLGFL Environmental Inc.
$40.43$14.7B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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GFL logo

GFL Environmental Inc.

GFL
NYSE · Waste Management
$40.43
At close - Oct 1, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$14.11B
P/E5.8x
52W High$47.66
Volume4.91M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

High Leverage and Margin Gap Challenge Acquisition-Driven Growth

GFL Environmental's investment thesis is centered on its aggressive acquisition-driven growth strategy, which has expanded its asset base but has not yet translated into consistent profitability or margin expansion. The company's gross margin of 19.8% in 2026Q...

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityStrained
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsHealthy
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

GFL price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

6/12 Beats

EPS beat 6 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-81% Peers

P/E is 81% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 66 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 66)

04

Healthy Uptrend

Uptrend

Price > 50DMA > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 29
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue growth of 16.3% in 2026Q2 appears to be a rebound from a divested asset base, but the company's gross margin of 19.8% remains significantly below the 29-42% range of key peers, indicating a persistent structural disadvantage.

Analyst Consensus+43.5% target
Buy(18 analysts)
14 Buy3 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Diversified environmental services

GFL is the only major diversified environmental services company in North America offering both solid and liquid waste management services.

Market leadership position

GFL is the fourth-largest waste management and recycling operator in North America, with operations in Canada and 18 U.S. states.

Geographic diversification

The company generates about two-thirds of its revenue in the U.S. and one-third in Canada, providing balanced exposure to both markets.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 10/2/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
GFL-5.55%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+11.83%
1-Year Return
GFL-13.11%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+14.29%
3-Year Return
GFL+29.84%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+73.37%
5-Year Return
GFL+9.04%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+69.42%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/EMedian
6.0x
Forward P/E
50.8x
EV/EBITDA80th %ile
17.3x
FCF YieldCash Flow
0.8%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
6.0x
265.5x
50th· Fair
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
14.5x
80th· High
Price/FCF
119.6x
54.6x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$17.08-57.8%
Base (Fair)$38.00-10.1%
Bull$54.16+34.0%
$17.08 Bear$38.00 Base$54.16 Bull
Current Market Price: $40.43
Trades at a 6.4% premium to Base DCF ($38.00)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$6.62B+7.8% YoY
Net income
$3.83B+630.5% YoY
Free cash flow
$175M-49.7% YoY
Operating margin
5.2%+1.6 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)1.6%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)52.1%
Piotroski Score8 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate6/12 (50%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 29, 2026
$0.14-13.3%
vs $0.16
$1.4B+2.9%
vs $1.3B
Q2 2026
Apr 29, 2026
$0.06+20.0%
vs $0.05
$1.2B+1.0%
vs $1.2B
Q1 2026
Feb 11, 2026
$0.26+85.7%
vs $0.14
$1.2B+1.2%
vs $1.2B
Q4 2025
Nov 5, 2025
$0.17-10.5%
vs $0.19
$1.2B-27.1%
vs $1.7B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Defense World·2d ago
GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE:GFL) Receives Consensus Recommendation of “Moderate Buy” from Analysts

GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL - Get Free Report) has been given an average rating of "Moderate Buy" by the fourteen ratings firms that are presently covering the stock, MarketBeat.com reports. Two analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, two have assigned a hold rating and ten have assigned a buy rating to the

PRNewsWire·3d ago
GFL Environmental Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend

MIAMI BEACH, FL, Sept. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL) (TSX: GFL) ("GFL" or the "Company") today announced that the Board of Directors of the Company has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0169 for each outstanding subordinate voting share and multiple voting share of the Company for the third quarter of 2026.

PRNewsWire·Sep 24, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. Sets Date for Q3 2026 Earnings Release

MIAMI BEACH, FL, Sept. 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- GFL Environmental Inc. (NYSE: GFL) (TSX: GFL) ("GFL" or the "Company") today announced that it will release its 2026 third quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday October 28, 2026 and will host an investor conference call related to this release on Thursday October 29, 2026 at 8:30 am Eastern Time.

GlobeNewsWire·Sep 23, 2026
NBPE Announces August Monthly NAV Update

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN OR INTO AUSTRALIA, CANADA, ITALY, DENMARK, JAPAN, THE UNITED STATES, OR TO ANY NATIONAL OF SUCH JURISDICTIONS

Filtered for GFL Environmental Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark GFL against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
GFL logoGFLGFL Environmental Inc.Current
$40.43$14.11B5.767.77%57.95%52.14%0.14%
WM logoWMWaste Management, Inc.
$201.90$80.7B30.1314.24%11.12%28.92%—
RSG logoRSGRepublic Services, Inc.
$206.98$63.68B30.223.49%12.94%18.26%—
WCN logoWCNWaste Connections, Inc.
$150.66$37.97B36.046.55%10.86%13.18%—
CWST logoCWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.
$78.07$4.89B650.5817.95%0.29%0.36%—
CLH logoCLHClean Harbors, Inc.
$312.51$16.5B42.932.39%7.03%15.65%—

Compare GFL vs Peers

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs WM

Most directly comparable listed peer for GFL.

Scale Benchmark

vs RSG

Larger-name benchmark to compare GFL against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs WM, RSG, WCN, CWST

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GFL Frequently Asked Questions

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is GFL Environmental Inc.'s revenue?

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) reported $6.97B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 423% increase from $1.33B in 2017.

How fast is GFL Environmental Inc. growing?

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) grew revenue by 7.8% over the past year. This is steady growth.

Is GFL profitable?

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) reported a net loss of $227.4M for fiscal year 2025.

Dividend & Returns
Does GFL pay dividends?

Yes, GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.14%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is GFL's return on equity?

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) has a return on equity (ROE) of 52.1%. This is excellent, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

What is GFL Environmental Inc.'s free cash flow?

GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) generated $192.2M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in GFL back in 2017?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 9+ years of data

See returns →