Harley-Davidson is overvalued at a 27x P/E, despite weak operating income and declining sales forecasts through 2027. Current retail and inventory improvements do not translate into sustainable earnings recovery; management's 2026E guidance implies minimal profitability. I lower my fair value target to $14/share, based on an 8-9x P/E and $1.9/share EPS, and maintain a 'Hold' rating.