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PKGPackaging Corporation of America
$240.98$21.5B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
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Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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PKG logo

Packaging Corporation of America

PKG
NYSE · Packaging
$240.98
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$21.47B
P/E28.1x
52W High$259.98
Volume495.69K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q1

Acquisition-Driven Growth Faces Margin Compression Pressures

Packaging Corporation of America is executing a strategic expansion via a $1.8B acquisition, which boosted total assets to $10.8B and revenue growth to 10.6% YoY in 2026Q1. However, the company faces margin compression as gross margin fell to 19.1% from 21.2% ...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsMixed
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

PKG price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

9/12 Beats

EPS beat 9 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+46% Peers

P/E is 46% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 62 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 62)

04

Mixed Trend

Mixed

Price < 50DMA but > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 22
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue accelerated 10.6% YoY in 2026Q1 to $2.4B, but gross margin contracted to 19.1% from 21.2% a year earlier, and EPS fell 15.5% to $1.91, indicating cost pressures are eroding profitability.

Analyst Consensus+13.2% target
Hold(26 analysts)
9 Buy15 Hold2 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Orderly cycle recovery

The bull case anticipates a structured recovery in the packaging cycle, supporting demand and pricing stability.

Wider containerboard spreads

Expanding margins in containerboard production are expected to drive profitability and earnings growth.

Effective price pass-through

The company's ability to pass on cost increases to customers helps maintain margins and revenue growth.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
PKG+16.16%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
PKG+15.33%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
PKG+70.02%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+76.58%
5-Year Return
PKG+86.40%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+72.66%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
28.1x
Forward P/EExpansion
22.9x
EV/EBITDA80th %ile
13.3x
FCF YieldCash Flow
3.4%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
28.1x
19.2x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
10.7x
80th· High
Price/FCF
29.5x
25.4x
80th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$99.98-58.5%
Base (Fair)$223.00-4.2%
Bull$377.65+56.7%
$99.98 Bear$223.00 Base$377.65 Bull
Current Market Price: $240.98
Trades at a 8.1% premium to Base DCF ($223.00)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$8.99B+7.2% YoY
Net income
$769M-4.5% YoY
Free cash flow
$729M+39.7% YoY
Operating margin
14%+0.8 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)12.6%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)17.1%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate9/12 (75%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 22, 2026
$2.35+1.7%
vs $2.31
$2.5B-0.1%
vs $2.5B
Q2 2026
Apr 22, 2026
$2.40+12.1%
vs $2.14
$2.4B-2.4%
vs $2.4B
Q1 2026
Jan 27, 2026
$2.32-3.7%
vs $2.41
$2.4B-3.0%
vs $2.4B
Q4 2025
Oct 22, 2025
$2.73-3.2%
vs $2.82
$2.3B+0.4%
vs $2.3B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
GuruFocus·6d ago
Packaging Corporation of America Schedules Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter 2026 Operating Results

Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) will hold a conference call on Thursday October 22, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss third quarter 2026 re

Business Wire·6d ago
Packaging Corporation of America Schedules Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter 2026 Operating Results

LAKE FOREST, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) will hold a conference call on Thursday October 22, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss third quarter 2026 results. The conference call leader will be Mark Kowlzan. Third quarter earnings results will be released after the market closes on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. To access the conference call, you may pre-register for the conference by navigating to https://dpregister.com/sreg/10205357/102fc34e0c7. Once.

Seeking Alpha·Sep 10, 2026
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript

Business Wire·Sep 8, 2026
Packaging Corporation of America's Chief Executive Officer to Speak at 2026 Jefferies Global Industrials Conference

LAKE FOREST, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Packaging Corporation of America's (NYSE: PKG) Chief Executive Officer, Mark Kowlzan, will participate in a Fireside Chat at Jefferies 2026 Global Industrials Conference being held in New York on Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 8:10am Eastern Time. Following, Mr. Kowlzan and Executive Vice President and CFO, Kent Pflederer will participate in a Q&A session. Immediately afterwards, they will be hosting a series of 1 x 1 meetings. For those interested in li.

Filtered for Packaging Corporation of AmericaMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark PKG against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
PKG logoPKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaCurrent
$240.98$21.47B28.097.23%8.55%17.08%2.08%
IP logoIPInternational Paper Company
$35.70$18.9B-5.3233.71%-14.2%-22.39%—
GPK logoGPKGraphic Packaging Holding Company
$9.66$2.86B6.53-2.16%2.25%5.92%—
SON logoSONSonoco Products Company
$50.63$5.01B12.7241.72%8.67%18.3%—
CLW logoCLWClearwater Paper Corporation
$21.38$344.81M-18.5912.42%-3.24%-6.13%—
SEE logoSEESealed Air Corporation
$42.15$6.21B12.29-0.61%9.43%48.39%—

Compare PKG vs Peers

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs IP

Most directly comparable listed peer for PKG.

Scale Benchmark

vs AMZN

Larger-name benchmark to compare PKG against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs IP, GPK, SON, CLW

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

PKG SEC Filings & Documents

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Jul 23, 2026·SEC

Material company update

May 13, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Apr 23, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

3
FY 2026

Feb 26, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 27, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Feb 29, 2024·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 7, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 8, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 6, 2025·SEC

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PKG Frequently Asked Questions

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Packaging Corporation of America's revenue?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported $9.53B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 507% increase from $1.57B in 1998.

How fast is Packaging Corporation of America growing?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) grew revenue by 7.2% over the past year. This is steady growth.

Is PKG profitable?

Yes, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is profitable, generating $691.0M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (8.6% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does PKG pay dividends?

Yes, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) pays a dividend with a yield of 2.08%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is PKG's return on equity?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a return on equity (ROE) of 17.1%. This is reasonable for most industries.

What is Packaging Corporation of America's free cash flow?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) generated $742.4M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in PKG back in 1998?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 28+ years of data

See returns →