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RIORio Tinto Group
$83.73$136.1B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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RIO logo

Rio Tinto Group

RIO
NYSE · Copper & Diversified Miners
$83.73
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$136.06B
P/E13.7x
52W High$112.58
Volume2.74M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Cyclical Recovery Masks Rising Capital Intensity

Rio Tinto's latest quarter shows a cyclical rebound, with revenue up 14.5% YoY to $31.0B and net margin expanding to 21.5%, but the company is navigating a structural shift toward higher capital intensity, as capex/revenue has climbed to 19.2% from 10.6% in 2022Q2.

GrowthStable
ProfitabilityStable
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

RIO price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

5/12 Beats

EPS beat 5 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-27% Peers

P/E is 27% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 37 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 63% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 28
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue grew 14.5% YoY to $31.0B in 2026Q2, with gross margin recovering to 28.0% from a 25.0% trough in 2025Q2, though still below the 41.6% peak of 2021Q4.

Analyst Consensus+16.4% target
Hold(31 analysts)
11 Buy13 Hold7 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strong Commodity Demand

Sustained demand for iron ore, copper, and aluminum is driven by global urbanization and energy transition, supporting commodity prices.

Diverse Growth Projects

Rio Tinto has over 100 projects, with major growth initiatives like Oyu Tolgoi (copper) and Simandou (iron ore) expected to enhance earnings.

Solid Financial Position

The company boasts a strong balance sheet and cash flows, enabling attractive dividend yields for income-focused investors.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Commodity Price Volatility

Commodity markets are volatile; a drop in iron ore or copper prices could negatively impact Rio Tinto's performance.

Operational Risks

Mining operations face production troubles and regulatory risks that could disrupt earnings and share prices.

Mixed Analyst Ratings

The consensus rating is often a 'Hold', with recent downgrades and price target reductions suggesting limited near-term upside.

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/8/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
RIO+8.53%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
RIO+27.59%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
RIO+44.65%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+69.72%
5-Year Return
RIO+73.25%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+57.65%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
13.7x
Forward P/EExpansion
10.2x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
7.0x
FCF YieldCash Flow
3.5%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
13.7x
9.4x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
4.9x
100th· High
Price/FCF
28.2x
15.0x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$96.51+15.3%
Base (Fair)$143.59+71.5%
Bull$214.16+155.8%
$96.51 Bear$143.59 Base$214.16 Bull
Current Market Price: $83.73
Trades at a 41.7% discount to Base DCF ($143.59)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$57.77B+7.7% YoY
Net income FY25
$9.99B-13.5% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
$4.82B-19.3% YoY
Operating margin FY25
25.9%-3.3 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)15.3%
Avg ROIC 5Y23.6%
ROE (FY25)16%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate5/12 (42%)
Revenue Beat Rate6/12 (50%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 28, 2026
$4.21+2.9%
vs $4.09
$31.0B-1.9%
vs $31.6B
Q1 2026
Feb 19, 2026
$3.73+0.5%
vs $3.71
$30.8B+1.9%
vs $30.2B
Q3 2025
Jul 29, 2025
$2.23-5.1%
vs $2.35
$19.7B-0.3%
vs $19.8B
Q1 2025
Feb 19, 2025
$2.49-2.7%
vs $2.56
$21.5B-0.8%
vs $21.6B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
Business Wire·3d ago
Rio Tinto approves $144 million investment to advance Resolution Copper project

SUPERIOR, Arizona--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Rio Tinto has approved a $144 million investment by Resolution Copper (Rio Tinto share: $79 million) to advance the next phase of development at the project in Arizona, one of the world's largest untapped copper deposits and a potential major new source of domestically produced copper for the United States. The investment builds on the completion of the historic land exchange in March 2026, which unlocked the project's next phase. It is additional to approxim.

Seeking Alpha·Oct 31, 2026
Rio Tinto: Commodity Risks Keep Us Neutral

Rio Tinto's Q3 iron ore production increased 2%, while stronger Pilbara shipments supported unchanged full-year guidance. Oyu Tolgoi copper output rose 27%, offsetting weaker performance at Escondida and operational disruptions at Kennecott. Higher diesel costs and a stronger Australian dollar could add approximately $694 million in annual Pilbara costs on a 100% operations basis.

Seeking Alpha·Oct 31, 2026
Rio Tinto: Good Price To Buy And Hold For A Strong 2027

Rio Tinto Group is rated a BUY, driven by robust copper growth, resilient segmental earnings, and a 16% upside to a $98.75 target. Copper's share of RIO revenue has surged to 35.6% in H1 2026, with strong pricing and demand tailwinds from electrification and supply constraints. The aluminum segment remains resilient despite tariffs and supply shocks, while iron ore faces headwinds from Chinese demand stagnation and CMRG negotiations.

Reuters·Oct 29, 2026
Rio Tinto assesses new lithium plant in Argentina, copper opportunities

Rio Tinto is evaluating the construction ​of a new lithium plant in Argentina ‌that would require about $1 billion in additional investment, Chief Executive Simon Trott said.

Filtered for Rio Tinto GroupMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark RIO against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Rio Tinto Group (RIO)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
RIO logoRIORio Tinto GroupCurrent
$83.73$136.06B13.737.67%17.29%15.98%4.49%
BHP logoBHPBHP Group Limited
$79.89$202.95B20.7014.63%——3.32%
VALE logoVALEVale S.A.
$11.59$49.43B82.490.46%1.45%1.6%7.22%
FCX logoFCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
$59.42$85.42B24.871.12%13.03%10.76%1.01%
AA logoAAAlcoa Corporation
$39.54$10.43B6.885.31%10.68%21.25%1%
NEM logoNEMNewmont Corporation
$120.91$127.4B13.7522.16%35.05%26.32%0.83%

Compare RIO vs Peers

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs BHP

Most directly comparable listed peer for RIO.

Scale Benchmark

vs CAT

Larger-name benchmark to compare RIO against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs BHP, VALE, FCX, AA

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RIO Frequently Asked Questions

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Rio Tinto Group's revenue?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) reported $57.77B in revenue in fiscal year 2025. That is 645% more than the $7.76B of fiscal year 1996.

How fast is Rio Tinto Group growing?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) grew revenue by 7.7% in fiscal year 2025, compared with the prior fiscal year.

Is RIO profitable?

Yes. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) earned $9.99B in net income in fiscal year 2025 (a 17.3% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does RIO pay dividends?

Yes. Rio Tinto Group (RIO) pays a dividend that yields 4.49% at the current price, a high yield.

What is RIO's return on equity?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) had a return on equity (ROE) of 16.0% in fiscal year 2025. That is above the market's typical 10-15%.

What is Rio Tinto Group's free cash flow?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) generated $4.82B in free cash flow in fiscal year 2025.

What if you invested $1,000 in RIO back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →