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RIORio Tinto Group
$95.25$154.8B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
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RIO logo

Rio Tinto Group

RIO
NYSE · Industrial Materials
$95.25
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$154.78B
P/E15.6x
52W High$112.58
Volume2.66M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Cyclical Recovery Masks Rising Capital Intensity

Rio Tinto's latest quarter shows a cyclical rebound, with revenue up 14.5% YoY to $31.0B and net margin expanding to 21.5%, but the company is navigating a structural shift toward higher capital intensity, as capex/revenue has climbed to 19.2% from 10.6% in 20...

GrowthStable
ProfitabilityStable
ValuationAttractive
TechnicalsMixed
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

RIO price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

5/12 Beats

EPS beat 5 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

-49% Peers

P/E is 49% below peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 68 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 68)

04

Mixed Trend

Mixed

Price < 50DMA but > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Oct 28
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue grew 14.5% YoY to $31.0B in 2026Q2, with gross margin recovering to 28.0% from a 25.0% trough in 2025Q2, though still below the 41.6% peak of 2021Q4.

Analyst Consensus+8.3% target
Hold(31 analysts)
11 Buy13 Hold7 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strong Commodity Demand

Sustained demand for iron ore, copper, and aluminum is driven by global urbanization and energy transition, supporting commodity prices.

Diverse Growth Projects

Rio Tinto has over 100 projects, with major growth initiatives like Oyu Tolgoi (copper) and Simandou (iron ore) expected to enhance earnings.

Solid Financial Position

The company boasts a strong balance sheet and cash flows, enabling attractive dividend yields for income-focused investors.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Commodity Price Volatility

Commodity markets are volatile; a drop in iron ore or copper prices could negatively impact Rio Tinto's performance.

Operational Risks

Mining operations face production troubles and regulatory risks that could disrupt earnings and share prices.

Mixed Analyst Ratings

The consensus rating is often a 'Hold', with recent downgrades and price target reductions suggesting limited near-term upside.

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
RIO+22.68%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
RIO+57.15%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
RIO+71.20%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+76.80%
5-Year Return
RIO+78.14%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+68.85%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
15.6x
Forward P/EExpansion
11.4x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
7.6x
FCF YieldCash Flow
3.1%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
15.6x
9.4x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
7.6x
5.0x
100th· High
Price/FCF
32.1x
15.0x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$93.13-2.2%
Base (Fair)$137.81+41.5%
Bull$197.64+107.5%
$93.13 Bear$137.81 Base$197.64 Bull
Current Market Price: $95.25
Trades at a 30.9% discount to Base DCF ($137.81)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$57.77B+7.7% YoY
Net income
$9.99B-13.5% YoY
Free cash flow
$4.82B-19.3% YoY
Operating margin
25.9%-3.3 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)15.3%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)16%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate5/12 (42%)
Revenue Beat Rate5/12 (42%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Jul 28, 2026
$4.21+2.9%
vs $4.09
$31.0B-1.9%
vs $31.6B
Q1 2026
Feb 19, 2026
$3.73+0.5%
vs $3.71
$30.8B+1.9%
vs $30.2B
Q3 2025
Jul 30, 2025
$2.79-10.6%
vs $3.12
$27.1B+3.1%
vs $26.3B
Q3 2025
Jul 29, 2025
$2.23-5.1%
vs $2.35
$19.7B-0.3%
vs $19.8B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Newsfile Corp·2d ago
Rio2 Company-Wide Exploration Update

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - September 22, 2026) - Rio2 Limited (TSX: RIO) (OTCQX: RIOFF) (BVL: RIO) provides a company-wide exploration update for its Condestable Copper Mine, located in Peru, its Fenix Gold Mine, located in Chile and its Kalzas Tungsten Project, located in Canada. Condestable Mine - Peru The Company announces the initiation of a first-phase surface drilling program and district-scale exploration activities at the Condestable Mine.

Reuters·6d ago
Prysmian, Rio Tinto partner to bring low-carbon aluminum to Amazon data center

Italian cable maker Prysmian said on Friday it had partnered ​with Rio Tinto to supply ‌electrical cables made with low-carbon aluminium for an Amazon data centre in ​Ohio.

MarketBeat·Sep 14, 2026
Battery Stocks Are Heating Up—These 2 ETFs Offer a Safer Bet

Short-term swings in commodity pricing aside, battery stocks present a compelling long-term proposition for investors anticipating that the electrification boom will continue. These companies have faced some challenges of late, including turbulent lithium prices, concerns about oversupply, and slower-than-hoped-for electric vehicle sales growth.

Business Wire·Sep 9, 2026
Nyangumarta Warrarn Aboriginal Corporation and Rio Tinto sign milestone agreement for Winu Project

PERTH, Australia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Nyangumarta Warrarn Aboriginal Corporation (NWAC) and Rio Tinto have signed a Project Agreement for the proposed Winu copper-gold mine on Nyangumarta Country, marking a significant milestone in their long-term partnership and the development of the project. Building on the Project Planning Agreement signed in 2023, the newly co-designed agreement sets out how Nyangumarta People and Rio Tinto will work together, and how Nyangumarta knowledge, priorities and.

Filtered for Rio Tinto GroupMore Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark RIO against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Rio Tinto Group (RIO)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
RIO logoRIORio Tinto GroupCurrent
$95.25$154.78B15.617.67%17.29%15.98%3.95%
BHP logoBHPBHP Group Limited
$84.95$215.8B23.86-7.9%17.13%35.35%—
VALE logoVALEVale S.A.
$13.82$58.94B23.830.46%4.92%5.3%—
FCX logoFCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
$72.59$104.35B47.751.12%11.38%9.43%—
AA logoAAAlcoa Corporation
$44.06$11.63B9.925.31%9.39%18.95%—
NEM logoNEMNewmont Corporation
$123.55$130.18B19.2719.08%38.06%24.89%—

Compare RIO vs Peers

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs BHP

Most directly comparable listed peer for RIO.

Scale Benchmark

vs CAT

Larger-name benchmark to compare RIO against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs BHP, VALE, FCX, AA

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RIO Frequently Asked Questions

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Rio Tinto Group's revenue?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) reported $115.63B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 1391% increase from $7.76B in 1996.

How fast is Rio Tinto Group growing?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) grew revenue by 7.7% over the past year. This is steady growth.

Is RIO profitable?

Yes, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) is profitable, generating $22.33B in net income for fiscal year 2025 (17.3% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does RIO pay dividends?

Yes, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) pays a dividend with a yield of 3.95%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is RIO's return on equity?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a return on equity (ROE) of 16.0%. This is reasonable for most industries.

What is Rio Tinto Group's free cash flow?

Rio Tinto Group (RIO) generated $10.97B in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in RIO back in 1996?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 30+ years of data

See returns →