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Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$132.60
→
Intrinsic$275.28
+108%
$186.45$275.28$451.75
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ABNB could have 108% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $133, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $186 → Bull $452. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$347$375$404$435
10%$238$256$275$296
12%$180$193$207$222
14%$144$155$166$177

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($452) offers 241% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($186) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$5.65B
Year 2$7.06B
Year 3$8.82B
Year 4$11.03B
Year 5$13.79B
Terminal$218.48B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$4.52BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ABNB stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

ABNB trades at $132.60 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $229.02, implying +66% upside. At a 9.5% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of ABNB's future cash flows. The bear case ($150.03) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is ABNB's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $4.52B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-4.57B net debt and dividing by 0.65B shares: Bear $150.03 | Base $229.02 | Bull $349.01. Current price $132.60 implies +66% to base case.

How is ABNB's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($143.14B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 31.7x.