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Amphenol Corporation (APH) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Amphenol Corporation (APH)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$154.22
→
Intrinsic$41.81
-73%
$26.98$41.81$71.30
Current price reflects execution expectations above 15% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $27 → Bull $71. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $71).
Discount ↓Growth →11%13%15%17%
8%$53$58$63$68
10%$35$38$42$45
12%$26$28$31$33
14%$20$22$24$26

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($71) with 18% growth, 8% discount rate

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($27) implies 83% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 73% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($71) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$2.48B
Year 2$2.86B
Year 3$3.30B
Year 4$3.81B
Year 5$4.39B
Terminal$69.57B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate15.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.15BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is APH stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

APH trades at $154.22 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $41.18, implying -71% downside. Using a 9.5% WACC and 15.4% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($62.60) suggests limited upside.

What is APH's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $2.15B, projected at 15.4% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.96B net debt and dividing by 1.26B shares: Bear $26.56 | Base $41.18 | Bull $62.60. Current price $154.22 implies -71% to base case.

How is APH's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 15.4% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($55.99B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.1x.