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Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited (ATAT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$36.95
→
Intrinsic$437.84
+1085%
$302.43$437.84$694.74
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ATAT could have 1085% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $37, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $302 → Bull $695. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$536$578$622$670
10%$379$407$438$470
12%$292$313$336$360
14%$237$254$272$290

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($695) offers 1780% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($302) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$2.09B
Year 2$2.61B
Year 3$3.26B
Year 4$4.08B
Year 5$5.10B
Terminal$74.98B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.67BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ATAT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

ATAT trades at $36.95 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $365.02, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of ATAT's future cash flows. The bear case ($244.08) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is ATAT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.67B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-1.89B net debt and dividing by 0.14B shares: Bear $244.08 | Base $365.02 | Bull $543.12. Current price $36.95 implies +300% to base case.

How is ATAT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($48.88B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.