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Atkore Inc. (ATKR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Atkore Inc. (ATKR)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$70.84
→
Intrinsic$159.26
+125%
$104.95$159.26$262.48
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ATKR could have 125% upside at 10% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $71, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 10%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $105 → Bull $262. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$192$211$230$251
10%$133$146$159$174
12%$100$110$120$131
14%$79$87$95$104

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($262) offers 271% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (10%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($105) with 8% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$325.38M
Year 2$358.10M
Year 3$394.11M
Year 4$433.74M
Year 5$477.35M
Terminal$7.02B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate10.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$295.65MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ATKR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

ATKR trades at $70.84 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $159.26, implying +132% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 10.1% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of ATKR's future cash flows. The bear case ($109.72) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is ATKR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $296M, projected at 10.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $421M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $109.72 | Base $159.26 | Bull $226.76. Current price $70.84 implies +132% to base case.

How is ATKR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 10.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.84B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.8x.