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AptarGroup, Inc. (ATR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$125.11
→
Intrinsic$83.46
-33%
$53.11$83.46$141.14
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 9% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $125, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $53 → Bull $141. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $101 | $112 | $123 | $135 |
| 10% | $69 | $76 | $83 | $92 |
| 12% | $50 | $56 | $62 | $68 |
| 14% | $39 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($141) offers 13% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 9% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($53) implies 58% downside at 7% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 18% growth expectations vs 9% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 33% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$379.27M
Year 2$411.91M
Year 3$447.35M
Year 4$485.84M
Year 5$527.65M
Terminal$7.76B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$349.22MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.