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The Brink's Company (BCO) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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The Brink's Company (BCO)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$124.80
→
Intrinsic$96.74
-22%
$45.51$96.74$193.94
Market implies 29% growth for 5 years
BCO trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $125, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (29%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $46 → Bull $194. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$134$150$167$185
10%$74$85$97$109
12%$42$50$58$67
14%$21$27$34$41

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($194) offers 55% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($46) implies 64% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 22% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$254.38M
Year 2$317.97M
Year 3$397.46M
Year 4$496.83M
Year 5$621.03M
Terminal$9.14B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$203.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BCO stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

BCO trades at $124.80 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $69.19, implying -42% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($136.57) suggests limited upside.

What is BCO's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $204M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.86B net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $23.43 | Base $69.19 | Bull $136.57. Current price $124.80 implies -42% to base case.

How is BCO's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.96B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.