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Belden Inc. (BDC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Belden Inc. (BDC)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$121.56
→
Intrinsic$99.06
-19%
$60.87$99.06$171.63
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
BDC trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $122, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $61 → Bull $172. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$123$136$149$164
10%$81$90$99$109
12%$58$64$71$79
14%$43$48$53$59

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($172) offers 41% upside at 16% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 13% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($61) implies 50% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 13% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 19% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$252.06M
Year 2$284.95M
Year 3$322.12M
Year 4$364.14M
Year 5$411.65M
Terminal$6.06B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate13.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$222.98MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BDC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

BDC trades at $121.56 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $99.06, implying -15% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 13.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($150.64) suggests limited upside.

What is BDC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $223M, projected at 13.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $881M net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $62.15 | Base $99.06 | Bull $150.64. Current price $121.56 implies -15% to base case.

How is BDC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 13.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.97B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 22.3x.