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Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$202.74
→
Intrinsic$193.83
-4%
$108.77$193.83$363.02
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
BDX appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $203, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $109 → Bull $363. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →13%15%17%19%
8%$258$285$315$346
10%$156$174$194$215
12%$102$116$130$145
14%$69$80$91$103

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($363) offers 79% upside at 20% growth, 8% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($109) implies 46% downside at 13% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$3.11B
Year 2$3.63B
Year 3$4.23B
Year 4$4.93B
Year 5$5.74B
Terminal$91.02B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate16.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.67BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BDX stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

BDX trades at $202.74, within 10% of our $193.83 intrinsic value estimate. At 9.5% WACC and 16.6% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $106.67 (bear) to $323.07 (bull).

What is BDX's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $2.67B, projected at 16.6% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $18.33B net debt and dividing by 0.29B shares: Bear $106.67 | Base $193.83 | Bull $323.07. Current price $202.74 implies -6% to base case.

How is BDX's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 16.6% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($73.98B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 27.7x.