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Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$44.64
→
Intrinsic$50.25
+13%
$3.23$50.25$139.54
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
BIPC appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $45, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $3 → Bull $140. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →14%16%18%20%
8%$82$97$113$130
10%$29$39$50$62
12%$0$7$15$24
14%$0$0$0$0

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($140) offers 213% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
  • 11% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (17%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($3) implies 93% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$771.31M
Year 2$908.28M
Year 3$1.07B
Year 4$1.26B
Year 5$1.48B
Terminal$21.82B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate17.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$655.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BIPC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

BIPC trades at $44.64, within 10% of our $50.25 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 17.8% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $1.11 (bear) to $121.46 (bull).

What is BIPC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $655M, projected at 17.8% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $11.61B net debt and dividing by 0.12B shares: Bear $1.11 | Base $50.25 | Bull $121.46. Current price $44.64 implies +13% to base case.

How is BIPC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 17.8% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($17.59B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.9x.