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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$187.40
→
Intrinsic$0.00
-100%
0
$0.00$0.00$0.00
BOOT's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: 2.7%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.
Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$0$0$0$0
10%$0$0$0$0
12%$0$0$0$0
14%$0$0$0$0

Bull Case

    Bear Case

    • Trading 100% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
    • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion

    📐 Model Inputs

    Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
    Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
    Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
    Base Free Cash Flow-$753,000.00Normalized (8% margin)
    Bear g×0.8, r+2%
    Base Historical CAGR
    Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
    ⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is 2.7% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.
    ℹ️

    DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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    Frequently Asked Questions

    Is BOOT stock undervalued or overvalued?
    🔴 OVERVALUED

    BOOT trades at $187.40 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $141.61, implying -28% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($221.50) suggests limited upside.

    What is BOOT's intrinsic value?

    Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $-753000, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $493M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $87.37 | Base $141.61 | Bull $221.50. Current price $187.40 implies -28% to base case.

    How is BOOT's fair value calculated?

    DCF Methodology:

    ① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap). Note: FCF is normalized to 8% of revenue due to reinvestment-suppressed margins.

    ② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

    ③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

    ④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.85B).

    ⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

    Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation.

    ⚡ Reinvestor Mode: BOOT's FCF margin (2.7%) is below 5% due to heavy reinvestment. We use normalized FCF (Revenue × 8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power rather than temporarily suppressed cash flows.