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BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$24.32
→
Intrinsic$50.42
+107%
$31.85$50.42$85.68
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BRBR could have 107% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $32 → Bull $86. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$63$69$75$82
10%$42$46$50$55
12%$30$33$37$40
14%$23$25$28$31

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($86) offers 252% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($32) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$307.08M
Year 2$368.50M
Year 3$442.20M
Year 4$530.63M
Year 5$636.76M
Terminal$9.37B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$255.90MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BRBR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

BRBR trades at $24.32 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $50.42, implying +115% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of BRBR's future cash flows. The bear case ($30.36) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is BRBR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $256M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.01B net debt and dividing by 0.13B shares: Bear $30.36 | Base $50.42 | Bull $79.96. Current price $24.32 implies +115% to base case.

How is BRBR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.49B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.