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CACI International Inc (CACI) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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CACI International Inc (CACI)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$604.57
→
Intrinsic$317.27
-48%
$170.99$317.27$595.25
Market implies 25% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 12% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $605, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (25%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $171 → Bull $595. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →8%10%12%14%
8%$408$457$510$566
10%$248$281$317$356
12%$159$184$211$239
14%$102$122$143$166

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($595) with 15% growth, 9% discount rate
  • Conservative 12% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($171) implies 72% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 25% growth expectations vs 12% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 48% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$539.64M
Year 2$604.93M
Year 3$678.11M
Year 4$760.14M
Year 5$852.10M
Terminal$12.54B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$481.41MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CACI stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

CACI trades at $604.57 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $317.27, implying -43% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 12.1% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($509.88) suggests limited upside.

What is CACI's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $481M, projected at 12.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.23B net debt and dividing by 0.02B shares: Bear $178.36 | Base $317.27 | Bull $509.88. Current price $604.57 implies -43% to base case.

How is CACI's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($10.33B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 21.5x.