Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)
Valuation Overview•Is Conagra Brands, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 24/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
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Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
CAG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-2.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | -2.9% | -2.8% | +0.2% | +2.7% | |
| EBITDA | $381.5M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $199.8M | -266.3% | — | — | -11.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.42 | -266.0% | — | — | -9.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $468.8M | -24.9% | +15.6% | +0.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.2% | 25.8% | 25.7% | 27.2% |
| Operating Margin | 12.3% | 1.5% | 5.0% | 8.9% |
| Net Margin | -0.4% | -1.4% | 1.8% | 5.4% |
| FCF Margin | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.46 | $0.47 | +2.9% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.40 | $0.39 | -2.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.44 | $0.45 | +3.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.33 | $0.39 | +16.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.58 | $0.56 | -3.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.52 | $0.51 | -2.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.68 | $0.70 | +3.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.60 | $0.53 | -11.1% |
Total return is -12.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -27.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -9.5% | -21.9% | — |
| 1Y | -12.1% | -27.8% | +6.7% |
| 3YCAGR | -12.7% | -34.4% | +14.2% |
| 5YCAGR | -8.4% | -20.1% | +20.0% |
| 10YCAGR | -2.6% | -16.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) valuation, health, and returns.
Conagra Brands, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +111.4% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $31.99)
Conagra Brands, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $31.99 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $28.10 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $13.95 (implying -5.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Conagra Brands, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 24/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -8.1%.
Conagra Brands, Inc. pays a 9.5% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.2% buyback yield.
Conagra Brands, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -2.9% 1Y revenue growth and -266.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -2.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 25 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -5.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Conagra Brands, Inc. include: -37.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.23x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.