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Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$17.37
→
Intrinsic$32.22
+85%
$16.61$32.22$61.90
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CAG could have 85% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $17, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $17 → Bull $62. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $41 | $47 | $52 | $59 |
| 10% | $25 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
| 12% | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| 14% | $9 | $11 | $14 | $16 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($62) offers 256% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 46% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($17) implies 4% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.41B
Year 2$1.52B
Year 3$1.64B
Year 4$1.77B
Year 5$1.91B
Terminal$28.16B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.30BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.