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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$77.12
→
Intrinsic$781.87
+914%
$535.60$781.87$1,249.11
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CALM could have 914% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $77, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $536 → Bull $1249. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $960 | $1036 | $1117 | $1204 |
| 10% | $674 | $726 | $782 | $841 |
| 12% | $516 | $555 | $597 | $640 |
| 14% | $417 | $447 | $479 | $514 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1249) offers 1520% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($536) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.33B
Year 2$1.67B
Year 3$2.09B
Year 4$2.61B
Year 5$3.26B
Terminal$47.94B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.07BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.