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Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$104.78
→
Intrinsic$74.69
-29%
$36.82$74.69$146.70
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
CCK trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $105, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $37 → Bull $147. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $97 | $110 | $124 | $139 |
| 10% | $56 | $65 | $75 | $85 |
| 12% | $34 | $40 | $47 | $55 |
| 14% | $19 | $24 | $30 | $36 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($147) offers 40% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($37) implies 65% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 13% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 29% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$852.12M
Year 2$920.29M
Year 3$993.91M
Year 4$1.07B
Year 5$1.16B
Terminal$17.06B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$789.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.