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Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$28.48
→
Intrinsic$54.17
+90%
$28.70$54.17$104.86
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CMCSA could have 90% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $28, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $29 → Bull $105. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$71$80$89$100
10%$42$48$54$61
12%$27$31$36$40
14%$17$20$24$28

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($105) offers 268% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($29) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$16.73B
Year 2$18.07B
Year 3$19.52B
Year 4$21.08B
Year 5$22.76B
Terminal$360.70B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$15.49BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CMCSA stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CMCSA trades at $28.48 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $54.17, implying +98% upside. At a 9.5% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CMCSA's future cash flows. The bear case ($31.79) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CMCSA's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $15.49B, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $91.77B net debt and dividing by 3.91B shares: Bear $31.79 | Base $54.17 | Bull $85.13. Current price $28.48 implies +98% to base case.

How is CMCSA's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($303.46B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.6x.