Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
Valuation Overview•Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 61/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
CMG demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (11.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (21.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 15.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.1B | +5.4% | +11.4% | +14.8% | +10.2% | |
| EBITDA | $493.8M | — | +17.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $302.8M | +0.1% | +19.5% | — | +12.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.23 | +2.7% | +21.2% | +35.5% | +14.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $471.0M | -4.2% | +19.7% | +37.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.1% | 26.1% | 24.9% | 21.1% |
| Operating Margin | 15.8% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 9.9% |
| Net Margin | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
| FCF Margin | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 8.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.24 | $0.24 | +1.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +5.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.29 | $0.29 | +1.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.33 | $0.33 | +1.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.28 | $0.29 | +4.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.24 | $0.25 | +4.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.25 | $0.27 | +8.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.32 | $0.34 | +6.3% |
Total return is -37.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -62.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -13.4% | -22.7% | — |
| 1Y | -37.3% | -62.3% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -7.5% | -27.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +3.0% | -9.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +15.1% | +1.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) valuation, health, and returns.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -60.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $12.82)
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $12.82 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $42.30 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $43.06 (implying +32.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 61/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 5.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 15.3%.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 5.7% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -2.5% in the last 12 months.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +5.4% 1Y revenue growth and +2.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +11.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 67 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 11-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +32.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. include: -51.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.95x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.