Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)
Valuation Overview•Is Canadian National Railway Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
CNI demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 37.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | +1.4% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +3.2% | |
| EBITDA | $2.0B | — | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.1B | +6.0% | -2.7% | — | +2.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.88 | +7.8% | +0.5% | +8.6% | +5.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $828.1M | +7.6% | -4.7% | +0.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 44.2% | 42.7% | 42.7% | 42.6% |
| Operating Margin | 37.8% | 38.0% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| Net Margin | 27.2% | 28.9% | 30.1% | 30.7% |
| FCF Margin | 20.7% | 20.2% | 22.3% | 20.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.31 | $1.31 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.43 | $1.49 | +4.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.28 | $1.33 | +3.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.37 | $1.35 | -1.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.26 | $1.29 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.37 | $1.30 | -5.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.28 | $1.26 | -1.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.41 | $1.35 | -4.3% |
Total return is +13.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -11.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +14.4% | +5.1% | — |
| 1Y | +13.9% | -11.1% | +2.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +1.0% | -18.4% | +6.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +3.7% | -9.0% | +11.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +8.5% | -5.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) valuation, health, and returns.
Canadian National Railway Company is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $109.29)
Canadian National Railway Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $109.29 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $205.80 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $112.33 (implying -1.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Canadian National Railway Company displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.6%.
Canadian National Railway Company pays a 2.2% dividend yield, covered by a 47% payout ratio with 30 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.2% buyback yield.
Canadian National Railway Company's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +1.4% 1Y revenue growth and +7.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +0.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 51 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Canadian National Railway Company include: -14.7% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.50x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.