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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$24.46
→
Intrinsic$21.46
-12%
$9.80$21.46$43.64
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
CNK appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $24, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $44. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$28$32$37$41
10%$16$19$21$25
12%$9$11$13$15
14%$4$6$8$10

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($44) offers 78% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($10) implies 60% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 10% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$340.42M
Year 2$367.65M
Year 3$397.06M
Year 4$428.83M
Year 5$463.13M
Terminal$6.81B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$315.20MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CNK stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

CNK trades at $24.46, within 10% of our $21.46 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 8.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $11.28 (bear) to $35.08 (bull).

What is CNK's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $315M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.40B net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $11.28 | Base $21.46 | Bull $35.08. Current price $24.46 implies -6% to base case.

How is CNK's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.72B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.