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CONMED Corporation (CNMD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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CONMED Corporation (CNMD)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$40.03
→
Intrinsic$146.47
+266%
$90.68$146.47$252.31
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CNMD could have 266% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $40, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $91 → Bull $252. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$187$204$222$242
10%$122$134$146$160
12%$86$95$104$114
14%$64$71$78$86

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($252) offers 530% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($91) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$192.35M
Year 2$240.44M
Year 3$300.55M
Year 4$375.69M
Year 5$469.62M
Terminal$6.91B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$153.88MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CNMD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CNMD trades at $40.03 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $116.47, implying +168% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CNMD's future cash flows. The bear case ($66.64) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CNMD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $154M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $881M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $66.64 | Base $116.47 | Bull $189.84. Current price $40.03 implies +168% to base case.

How is CNMD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.50B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.