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Coherent, Inc. (COHR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Coherent, Inc. (COHR)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$195.96
→
Intrinsic$24.73
-87%
$10.68$24.73$51.37
COHR's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: 1.2%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.
Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.
Range: Bear $11 → Bull $51. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$35$39$44$49
10%$19$22$25$28
12%$10$12$14$17
14%$4$6$7$9

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($51) with 30% growth, 9% discount rate

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($11) implies 95% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 87% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($51) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$240.96M
Year 2$301.19M
Year 3$376.49M
Year 4$470.62M
Year 5$588.27M
Terminal$8.66B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$192.76MNormalized (8% margin)
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is 1.2% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is COHR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

COHR trades at $195.96 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $72.15, implying -63% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($118.48) suggests limited upside.

What is COHR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $193M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.98B net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $40.69 | Base $72.15 | Bull $118.48. Current price $195.96 implies -63% to base case.

How is COHR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap). Note: FCF is normalized to 8% of revenue due to reinvestment-suppressed margins.

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($14.15B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 73.4x.

⚡ Reinvestor Mode: COHR's FCF margin (1.2%) is below 5% due to heavy reinvestment. We use normalized FCF (Revenue × 8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power rather than temporarily suppressed cash flows.