...

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$21.58
→
Intrinsic$34.26
+59%
$18.95$34.26$63.33
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CON could have 59% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $22, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $19 → Bull $63. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$45$50$55$60
10%$27$31$34$38
12%$18$20$23$26
14%$12$14$16$18

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($63) offers 193% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 37% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($19) implies 12% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$252.42M
Year 2$302.90M
Year 3$363.48M
Year 4$436.18M
Year 5$523.42M
Terminal$7.70B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$210.35MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare CON vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CON stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CON trades at $21.58 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $34.26, implying +71% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CON's future cash flows. The bear case ($17.72) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CON's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $210M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.77B net debt and dividing by 0.13B shares: Bear $17.72 | Base $34.26 | Bull $58.62. Current price $21.58 implies +71% to base case.

How is CON's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($6.16B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.