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Campbell Soup Company (CPB)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$26.90
→
Intrinsic$19.07
-29%
$5.60$19.07$44.68
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
CPB trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $27, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $6 → Bull $45. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
| 10% | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
| 12% | $4 | $7 | $9 | $12 |
| 14% | $0 | $1 | $3 | $5 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($45) offers 66% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($6) implies 79% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 12% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 29% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$761.40M
Year 2$822.31M
Year 3$888.10M
Year 4$959.14M
Year 5$1.04B
Terminal$15.24B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$705.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.