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Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Copart, Inc. (CPRT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$41.25
→
Intrinsic$39.60
-4%
$27.85$39.60$61.89
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
CPRT appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $41, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $28 → Bull $62. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$48$51$55$60
10%$34$37$40$43
12%$27$29$31$33
14%$22$24$25$27

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($62) offers 50% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($28) implies 32% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.48B
Year 2$1.77B
Year 3$2.13B
Year 4$2.55B
Year 5$3.06B
Terminal$45.06B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.23BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CPRT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

CPRT trades at $41.25, within 10% of our $39.60 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 20.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $26.91 (bear) to $58.27 (bull).

What is CPRT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.23B, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-2.68B net debt and dividing by 0.98B shares: Bear $26.91 | Base $39.60 | Bull $58.27. Current price $41.25 implies +2% to base case.

How is CPRT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($36.03B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.