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Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Criteo S.A. (CRTO)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$20.49
→
Intrinsic$58.92
+188%
$41.31$58.92$92.40
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CRTO could have 188% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $20, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $41 → Bull $92. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$69$75$82$89
10%$50$54$59$64
12%$40$43$46$50
14%$33$36$38$41

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($92) offers 351% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($41) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$194.45M
Year 2$210.01M
Year 3$226.81M
Year 4$244.95M
Year 5$264.55M
Terminal$3.89B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$180.05MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CRTO stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CRTO trades at $20.49 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $58.92, implying +181% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CRTO's future cash flows. The bear case ($43.54) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CRTO's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $180M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-184M net debt and dividing by 0.06B shares: Bear $43.54 | Base $58.92 | Bull $79.48. Current price $20.49 implies +181% to base case.

How is CRTO's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.27B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.