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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$75.25
→
Intrinsic$60.06
-20%
$38.71$60.06$102.56
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
CSCO trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $75, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $39 → Bull $103. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $74 | $82 | $90 | $98 |
| 10% | $50 | $55 | $60 | $66 |
| 12% | $37 | $41 | $44 | $49 |
| 14% | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($103) offers 36% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($39) implies 49% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 13% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 20% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$14.35B
Year 2$15.50B
Year 3$16.74B
Year 4$18.08B
Year 5$19.52B
Terminal$309.39B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$13.29BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.