Popular:
CSX Corporation (CSX)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$36.30
→
Intrinsic$18.11
-50%
$9.12$18.11$36.00
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $36, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $9 → Bull $36. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $24 | $27 | $31 | $34 |
| 10% | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| 12% | $8 | $10 | $12 | $13 |
| 14% | $5 | $6 | $7 | $9 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($36) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($9) implies 75% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 21% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 50% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.94B
Year 2$3.17B
Year 3$3.42B
Year 4$3.70B
Year 5$3.99B
Terminal$63.28B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.72BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.