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Crane NXT, Co. (CXT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Crane NXT, Co. (CXT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$51.73
→
Intrinsic$41.79
-19%
$25.05$41.79$73.60
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
CXT trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $52, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $25 → Bull $74. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$52$57$64$70
10%$34$38$42$46
12%$24$27$30$33
14%$17$20$22$25

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($74) offers 42% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($25) implies 52% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 12% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 19% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$182.20M
Year 2$196.77M
Year 3$212.51M
Year 4$229.51M
Year 5$247.88M
Terminal$3.65B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$168.70MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CXT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

CXT trades at $51.73 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $41.79, implying -16% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 8.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($61.32) suggests limited upside.

What is CXT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $169M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $648M net debt and dividing by 0.06B shares: Bear $27.18 | Base $41.79 | Bull $61.32. Current price $51.73 implies -16% to base case.

How is CXT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.06B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.