Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
Valuation Overview•Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 51/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
DAL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (54.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 9.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.0B | +2.8% | +7.8% | +30.0% | +4.5% | |
| EBITDA | $2.1B | — | +12.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.2B | +44.8% | +56.0% | — | +1.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.86 | +43.7% | +54.9% | — | +3.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | +33.1% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 24.5% | 25.5% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| Operating Margin | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 2.7% |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | -1.0% |
| FCF Margin | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.58 | $0.64 | +10.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.53 | $1.55 | +1.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.57 | $1.71 | +8.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.06 | $2.10 | +1.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.38 | $0.46 | +20.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.74 | $1.85 | +6.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.52 | $1.50 | -1.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.36 | $2.36 | +0.0% |
Total return is +78.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +53.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +22.4% | +13.1% | — |
| 1Y | +78.6% | +53.6% | +1.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +26.5% | +6.0% | +4.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.8% | +1.0% | +3.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.0% | -4.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) valuation, health, and returns.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -69.2% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $25.89)
Delta Air Lines, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $25.89 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $320.15 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $86.90 (implying +3.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 51/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.0%.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. pays a 0.8% dividend yield, covered by a 9% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +2.8% 1Y revenue growth and +43.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 44 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 6-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +3.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Delta Air Lines, Inc. include: -23.1% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.85x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.85x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.