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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$71.34
→
Intrinsic$181.91
+155%
$115.66$181.91$307.58
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DAL could have 155% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $71, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $116 → Bull $308. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $230 | $250 | $272 | $295 |
| 10% | $153 | $167 | $182 | $198 |
| 12% | $111 | $121 | $132 | $144 |
| 14% | $84 | $92 | $101 | $110 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($308) offers 331% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($116) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$4.80B
Year 2$6.00B
Year 3$7.50B
Year 4$9.38B
Year 5$11.72B
Terminal$172.48B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.84BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.