...

Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$365.65
→
Intrinsic$85.56
-77%
$47.83$85.56$157.16
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $48 → Bull $157. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $157).
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$113$125$137$150
10%$69$77$86$95
12%$45$51$57$64
14%$30$34$39$44

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($157) with 30% growth, 9% discount rate

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($48) implies 87% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 77% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($157) — requires exceptional execution
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$123.30M
Year 2$154.12M
Year 3$192.65M
Year 4$240.82M
Year 5$301.02M
Terminal$4.43B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$98.64MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare DY vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DY stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

DY trades at $365.65 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $65.27, implying -81% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($114.90) suggests limited upside.

What is DY's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $99M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $963M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $31.57 | Base $65.27 | Bull $114.90. Current price $365.65 implies -81% to base case.

How is DY's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($2.89B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.