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EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$660.65
→
Intrinsic$1,027.52
+56%
$706.34$1,027.52$1,636.90
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests EME could have 56% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $661, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $706 → Bull $1637. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $1260 | $1359 | $1465 | $1578 |
| 10% | $887 | $955 | $1028 | $1104 |
| 12% | $681 | $732 | $786 | $843 |
| 14% | $551 | $591 | $633 | $678 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1637) offers 148% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($706) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.67B
Year 2$2.08B
Year 3$2.60B
Year 4$3.25B
Year 5$4.07B
Terminal$59.86B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.33BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.