...

EnerSys (ENS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

EnerSys (ENS)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$167.14
→
Intrinsic$91.49
-45%
$55.53$91.49$159.73
Current price reflects execution expectations above 23% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $56 → Bull $160. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $160).
Discount ↓Growth →19%21%23%25%
8%$117$128$140$153
10%$76$83$91$100
12%$53$58$65$71
14%$38$43$48$53

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($160) with 28% growth, 9% discount rate

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($56) implies 67% downside at 18% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 45% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($160) — requires exceptional execution
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$171.22M
Year 2$210.51M
Year 3$258.82M
Year 4$318.21M
Year 5$391.23M
Terminal$5.76B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate22.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$139.26MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare ENS vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ENS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

ENS trades at $167.14 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $79.57, implying -50% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 22.9% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($130.65) suggests limited upside.

What is ENS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $139M, projected at 22.9% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $859M net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $44.88 | Base $79.57 | Bull $130.65. Current price $167.14 implies -50% to base case.

How is ENS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 22.9% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.08B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.