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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$163.76
→
Intrinsic$103.15
-37%
$71.78$103.15$162.77
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 11% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $164, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $72 → Bull $163. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $122 | $133 | $144 | $156 |
| 10% | $88 | $95 | $103 | $111 |
| 12% | $69 | $75 | $80 | $87 |
| 14% | $57 | $61 | $66 | $71 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($163) with 13% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($72) implies 56% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 23% growth expectations vs 11% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 37% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$758.22M
Year 2$841.85M
Year 3$934.70M
Year 4$1.04B
Year 5$1.15B
Terminal$16.95B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$682.89MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.