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Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (FBIN)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$60.19
→
Intrinsic$49.09
-18%
$27.45$49.09$90.23
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
FBIN trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $60, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $27 → Bull $90. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $62 | $69 | $77 | $86 |
| 10% | $39 | $44 | $49 | $55 |
| 12% | $26 | $29 | $34 | $38 |
| 14% | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($90) offers 50% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($27) implies 54% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 12% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 18% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$512.46M
Year 2$553.46M
Year 3$597.73M
Year 4$645.55M
Year 5$697.20M
Terminal$10.26B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$474.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.