...

FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

FTI Consulting, Inc. (FCN)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$177.57
→
Intrinsic$308.93
+74%
$214.34$308.93$488.58
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FCN could have 74% upside at 18% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $178, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 18%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $214 → Bull $489. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →14%16%18%20%
8%$372$403$435$470
10%$266$287$309$333
12%$207$222$239$257
14%$169$182$195$209

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($489) offers 175% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($214) with 14% growth, 12% discount rate
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$468.12M
Year 2$550.98M
Year 3$648.50M
Year 4$763.29M
Year 5$898.39M
Terminal$13.22B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate17.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$397.72MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare FCN vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is FCN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

FCN trades at $177.57 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $308.93, implying +74% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 17.7% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of FCN's future cash flows. The bear case ($210.15) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is FCN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $398M, projected at 17.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-418M net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $210.15 | Base $308.93 | Bull $452.04. Current price $177.57 implies +74% to base case.

How is FCN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 17.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($10.66B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.8x.