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F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FG) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FG)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$27.74
→
Intrinsic$169.79
+512%
$115.81$169.79$272.21
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FG could have 512% upside at 24% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $28, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 24%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $116 → Bull $272. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →20%22%24%26%
8%$209$225$243$262
10%$146$158$170$183
12%$112$120$129$139
14%$90$96$104$111

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($272) offers 881% upside at 29% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (24%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($116) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 24% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$795.49M
Year 2$990.31M
Year 3$1.23B
Year 4$1.53B
Year 5$1.91B
Terminal$28.11B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate24.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$639.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FG stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

FG trades at $27.74 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $143.43, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 24.5% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of FG's future cash flows. The bear case ($94.29) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is FG's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $639M, projected at 24.5% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-83M net debt and dividing by 0.13B shares: Bear $94.29 | Base $143.43 | Bull $215.79. Current price $27.74 implies +300% to base case.

How is FG's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 24.5% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($18.71B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.