...

F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FGN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FGN)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$25.75
→
Intrinsic$106.83
+315%
$73.16$106.83$170.80
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FGN could have 315% upside at 13% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $26, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 13%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $73 → Bull $171. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$128$139$151$164
10%$91$99$107$116
12%$70$76$82$89
14%$57$62$67$72

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($171) offers 563% upside at 16% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($73) with 10% growth, 12% discount rate
Loading charts...

5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$703.50M
Year 2$795.68M
Year 3$899.94M
Year 4$1.02B
Year 5$1.15B
Terminal$16.94B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate13.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$622.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare FGN vs BRK.BStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is FGN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

FGN trades at $25.75 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $106.83, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 13.1% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of FGN's future cash flows. The bear case ($74.26) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is FGN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $622M, projected at 13.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-93M net debt and dividing by 0.13B shares: Bear $74.26 | Base $106.83 | Bull $152.37. Current price $25.75 implies +300% to base case.

How is FGN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 13.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($13.90B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 22.3x.