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Fiserv, Inc. (FISV) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Fiserv, Inc. (FISV)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$66.78
→
Intrinsic$266.57
+299%
$168.49$266.57$452.66
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests FISV could have 299% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $67, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $168 → Bull $453. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$337$368$400$435
10%$224$244$267$290
12%$161$176$193$210
14%$121$133$146$160

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($453) offers 578% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($168) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$6.33B
Year 2$7.91B
Year 3$9.89B
Year 4$12.36B
Year 5$15.45B
Terminal$227.31B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.06BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FISV stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

FISV trades at $66.78 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $213.83, implying +211% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of FISV's future cash flows. The bear case ($126.23) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is FISV's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $5.06B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $23.72B net debt and dividing by 0.58B shares: Bear $126.23 | Base $213.83 | Bull $342.83. Current price $66.78 implies +211% to base case.

How is FISV's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($148.19B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.