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Fortive Corporation (FTV) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Fortive Corporation (FTV)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$55.51
→
Intrinsic$63.70
+15%
$40.85$63.70$107.15
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
FTV appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $56, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $41 → Bull $107. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$77$85$93$102
10%$53$58$64$70
12%$39$43$47$52
14%$30$33$37$40

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($107) offers 93% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • 13% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($41) implies 26% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.52B
Year 2$1.64B
Year 3$1.77B
Year 4$1.91B
Year 5$2.07B
Terminal$30.41B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.41BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is FTV stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

FTV trades at $55.51, within 10% of our $63.70 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 8.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $43.75 (bear) to $90.38 (bull).

What is FTV's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.41B, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.06B net debt and dividing by 0.35B shares: Bear $43.75 | Base $63.70 | Bull $90.38. Current price $55.51 implies +15% to base case.

How is FTV's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($25.54B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.