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Genpact Limited (G) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Genpact Limited (G)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$46.22
→
Intrinsic$60.49
+31%
$39.90$60.49$99.60
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests G could have 31% upside at 13% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $46, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 13%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $40 → Bull $100. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$73$80$88$95
10%$51$55$60$66
12%$38$42$45$49
14%$30$33$36$39

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($100) offers 115% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
  • 24% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($40) implies 14% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$598.10M
Year 2$674.71M
Year 3$761.14M
Year 4$858.63M
Year 5$968.62M
Terminal$14.25B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$530.19MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is G stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

G trades at $46.22 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $60.49, implying +28% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 12.8% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of G's future cash flows. The bear case ($40.68) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is G's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $530M, projected at 12.8% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $797M net debt and dividing by 0.18B shares: Bear $40.68 | Base $60.49 | Bull $88.12. Current price $46.22 implies +28% to base case.

How is G's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.8% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.71B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 22.1x.