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Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$45.02
→
Intrinsic$47.49
+5%
$23.71$47.49$92.70
Market implies 9% growth for 5 years
GLPI appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $45, the market prices in 9% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (10%).
Range: Bear $24 → Bull $93. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$62$70$79$88
10%$36$42$47$54
12%$22$26$30$35
14%$13$16$19$23

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($93) offers 106% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
  • 5% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (9%) ≤ historical CAGR (10%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($24) implies 47% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$1.16B
Year 2$1.27B
Year 3$1.40B
Year 4$1.53B
Year 5$1.68B
Terminal$24.69B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate9.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.06BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is GLPI stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

GLPI trades at $45.02, within 10% of our $47.49 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 9.7% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $25.97 (bear) to $76.71 (bull).

What is GLPI's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.06B, projected at 9.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $7.58B net debt and dividing by 0.27B shares: Bear $25.97 | Base $47.49 | Bull $76.71. Current price $45.02 implies +6% to base case.

How is GLPI's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 9.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($20.57B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.4x.