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Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$74.11
→
Intrinsic$12.45
-83%
$7.03$12.45$22.73
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $7 → Bull $23. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $23).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| 10% | $10 | $11 | $12 | $14 |
| 12% | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| 14% | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($23) with 30% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($7) implies 91% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 83% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($23) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$26.93M
Year 2$33.67M
Year 3$42.08M
Year 4$52.60M
Year 5$65.76M
Terminal$967.56M
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$21.55MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.