Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)
Valuation Overview•Is Green Brick Partners, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
GRBK demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 19.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $552.6M | -0.0% | +6.1% | +16.5% | +21.8% | |
| EBITDA | $104.6M | — | +4.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $78.4M | -17.9% | +2.4% | — | +35.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.78 | -16.3% | +5.5% | +25.8% | +34.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $78.4M | +867.4% | +33.0% | +45.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 30.5% | 31.5% | 30.0% | 26.1% |
| Operating Margin | 19.5% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| Net Margin | 14.9% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 11.6% |
| FCF Margin | 9.9% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.24 | $1.39 | +12.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.62 | $1.78 | +9.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.43 | $1.77 | +23.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.64 | $1.85 | +12.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.76 | $1.67 | -5.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.06 | $2.31 | +12.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.07 | $1.98 | -4.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.77 | $2.32 | +31.1% |
Total return is +25.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +0.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +18.0% | +8.7% | — |
| 1Y | +25.2% | +0.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +10.6% | -10.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +27.3% | +13.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +26.3% | +12.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK) valuation, health, and returns.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $79.55)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $79.55 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $104.57. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 6.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 15.4%.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.6% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -2.0% in the last 12 months.
Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -0.0% 1Y revenue growth and -16.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Green Brick Partners, Inc. include: -24.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.98x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.